Comentarios en: Manejo de coraje Por Luis Dávila Colón https://estado51prusa.com/?p=13158 Información Estadista - Puerto Rico USA Thu, 09 Apr 2015 15:26:09 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.3 Por: Michael Joyner https://estado51prusa.com/?p=13158#comment-53790 Thu, 09 Apr 2015 15:26:09 +0000 https://estado51prusa.com/?p=13158#comment-53790 Puerto Rico, in economic crisis like Greece.
A Game Theory like approach to a solution.

March 16, 2015
Michael Joyner, Natural Sciences,UPR, Rio Piedras Campus

Keywords: 80 billion dollars, Game Theory, Pareto Optimal solution, economic solution, IVA,P.R. referendum, Guantanamo, terrorist housing, P.R. Government corruption

Puerto Rico’s economic situation has reached a crisis level. After nearly a decade of economic recession and systematic reduction of the GDP and the erosion of the tax base due to failed economic policies, P.R. is no longer able to pay its extra-constitutional debt of 80 Billion dollars. The recent attempt to impose a value added tax model (IVA), resulted in a tax revolt. Multiple analysis by several economist concluded that the IVA would result in further deterioration to the economy. In essence, the government loses and the tax payer looses. This is known in Game Theory as a zero-sum game. The outcome is that there are no winners, no matter what combinations you “play”. You cannot tax the people more without destroying the economy further. Therefore, a different monetary source must be identified to attain a viable solution to the problem.

Game Theory was developed by Dr. John Nash for which he was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics. Game Theory is used by large adversaries (Governments, Corporations, Unions, etc.) in conflict in order to construct a viable solution to real world problems. World Governments have used this approach on many occasions in order to construct a solution in what would seem to be an intractable solution to a conflict. In Game Theory, an optimal solution between two adversaries where both sides maximize their gains and is mutually beneficial is known as Pareto Optimal Solution in Equilibrium. The following is a proposal in that spirit. This proposal is not written in stone and can be subject to variation. Many possibilities for this type of proposal and others exist. This is only one example.

Puerto Rico has many “assets” of which five are distinct.

Asset no. 1 Island of Vieques,
Asset no. 2 Roosvelt Roads Naval Air Station,
Asset no. 3 Island of Desecheo(Mona?),
Asset no. 4 Ramey Air Force Base
Asset no. 5 The territorial definition of P.R. which can be redefined or modified at will by Congress.

The U.S. government, in particular the President of the United States, has one particular serious problem that it(He) has tried to find a solution to , but to this date has come up empty handed. The dream closure of Guantanamo Base in Cuba (GITMO) and the NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) problem of relocating the terrorist to a new facility. As of this date, none of the 50 states of the United States of America is willing to shoulder this burden. And with good reason. No one wants terrorist in their backyard.

Option 1 for the U.S.
Assume first the Department of Defense closes Guantanamo. The U.S. government proceeds to indemnify the 5,000 people on Vieques at the rate $1,000,000 each, for a total of 5 billion dollars. Move the population of Vieques to the mainland , thereby creating 5,000 new millionaires which would recirculate the money through the island of P.R. thereby jump starting the economy in a near instant matter. Lease the island of Vieques till the year 2120. Transfer the terrorist from Guantanamo to a new secure modern facility on Vieques. The P.R. government also hands back Roosevelt Roads to Department of Defense, so they can use it to guard the Island of Vieques holding the terrorist. Last but not least, the U. S. would absorb the 80 Billion dollar P.R. debt, providing an economic solution for P.R.

Option 2 for the U.S.
As above in Option 1, but instead of using the Island of Vieques and Roosvelt Roads Naval Station as bargaining tool, we choose to use the deserted Island of Desecheo(Mona?) on the west coast of P.R. along with the transfer of Ramey Air Force Base back to The Department of Defense to guard the Island of Desecheo holding the terrorist. Same leasing conditions for the Island of Desecheo(Mona?) as option 1 above. With this second option, there is NO human displacement problems and it is a minimal transaction with far less drama. The U.S. absorbs the 80 Billion dollar P.R. debt. The jump starting of the P.R. economy would require a separate plan that would be missing in this option and is provided for in option 1.

Asset no. 5 can be used by Congress to define a new territory for the now “repossessed” island of Vieques or Desecheo(Mona?), in such a way that it would be reclassified as an independent Republic, giving it the same jurisdictional qualities that Guantanamo now has.

Since the terrorist prisoners would be located on an island offshore the island of Puerto Rico, they would be effectively located in nobodies backyard, as far as the 50 States are concerned. The U.S. problem is solved. It is important to make clear, that a Nation of 318 million people ( the U.S. population) , with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 16.7 Trillion dollars refused to shoulder their own burden. As for the citizens of P.R., however, they must undergo a great burden and are to be subjected to great risk to themselves. This cannot be understated, underestimated nor minimized in any way.

Puerto Rico’s citizens requirements in exchange for taking up U.S. terrorist housing burden and risk.
It should be pointed out that the Puerto Rican Government are employees of the citizens of Puerto Rico. So it is the wishes of the 3 million P.R. citizens that count, NOT the wishes of the elected officials. It is they, the 3 million citizens, who have the 80 billion dollar burden to repay, not the P.R. government officials. It is the P.R. government officials, through over 40 years of incompetence,and corruption, who are responsible for this economic debacle. Remember, the P.R. Constitution is modeled after the U.S. Constitution. The U.S. Constitution begins, “We The People,….”

Because of the failed economic and administrative policies carried out by the Puerto Rican government over the past 40 years on its own population, it would be a requirement that the U.S. government assign the I.R.S. to take over the taxing situation on the island of P.R. until some future political settlement is achieved. The loophole for creating extra constitutional debt would be closed, or restricted with a federal oversight committee as a minimum, to prevent a repetition of this grand failure. The P. R. Government DID NOT do a good job in handling its own finances and debt for over a 40 year period. Second, a U.S. CONGRESS enactment for a P.R. Fair Trade Act must be established while P.R. remains under U.S. jurisdiction that would level the playing field economically. Lets face it, P.R. is the equivalent of the Pitcairn of the Caribbean. P.R. is located at an incredible distance from the U.S. mainland (1,027 miles to Miami Fl., via ship or airplane, no roads) and cost serious amounts of fuel($) to ship products to and from the U.S. mainland. Third, the U.S. will put a deadline ( a fixed date like the Panama Canal had) on the Puerto Rican referendum, say 40 years from now or 2 generations. A fixed firm date is better than no date at all, but in reality, the date can be negotiated. Finally, 4 fundamental changes in the P.R. Constitution are required and must be imposed by the U.S. Congress.

1) The elections of the P.R. House of Representatives are to be held every (2) two years, following the procedure of the Federal Government and U.S. Constitution laws.
2) The elections for the P.R. Senate will be held every (6) six years, following the procedure of the Federal Government and the U.S. Constitution law.
3) A recall procedure for the governorship position in P.R. should be made available to the P.R. citizens, as is available to the citizens in the State of California.
4) Puerto Ricans have enjoyed U.S. citizenship since 1917 (nearly 100 years). Puerto Ricans have fought and died for the U.S. in WW2, Korean War, Vietnam War, Desert Storm I, Desert Storm II. They are now going to shoulder the responsibility for terrorist housing. For all this, native born Puerto Ricans will be granted vote, in the U.S. Presidential elections.

Conclusion
With this approach, Puerto Rico solves the 5 main problems that have been plaguing it since 1898

1) The referendum problem would be resolved. A fact that the U.S. Congress has ignored the wishes of 3 million U.S. citizens for nearly 100 years, would come to an end.
2) A level economic playing field with the U.S. mainland would stabilize the P.R. economy.
3) A solution to its extra-constitutional debt of $ 80 billion U.S. dollars and the impending economic implosion.
4) The change in election procedure will hopefully minimize corruption in government.
5) The privilege of being able to vote in the U.S. Presidential elections allows P.R. to gain some traction and influence in U.S. Congress, which will allow for the P.R. citizens voices to be heard in a serious fashion by Congress while remaining a Commonwealth (ELA) under U.S. jurisdiction or until a new status definition is achieved.

References
1) Games, Theory and Applications, L.C. Thomas, Dover Publications 1986
2) A General theory of Equilibrium Selection in Games, Harsanyi and Selten, MIT Press 1988
3) MIT Open Course ware, http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/economics/14-126-game-theory-spring-2010/
4) Open Yale Courses, Econ 159 Game Theory, http://oyc.yale.edu/economics/econ-159
5) John Forbes Nash Jr., http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Forbes_Nash,_Jr.

]]>
Por: Enrique Pujals https://estado51prusa.com/?p=13158#comment-4846 Fri, 30 Nov 2012 22:49:16 +0000 https://estado51prusa.com/?p=13158#comment-4846 Luis, estaba escuchando tu programa cuando a eso de las 6:30 (hoy viernes 30 de noviembre 2012) la estación se fue del aire, o por lo menos tu programa, y lo único que se oía era alguien dirigiendo el rezo de un rosario. Irónico.

]]>