Can Nicaragua survive the crisis in Venezuela?

05/27/2014 | Filed under: Mala Administración PPD y Neo-Comunistas | Posted by:

{Esto es Un Millón de veces mas importante para el futuro de Puerto Rico que la promoción diaria del terrorismo de los Chilenos en El Nuevo Día, Primera Hora y Claridad. Por eso le esconden a Puerto Rico la Verdad de lo que está ocurriendo en Venezuela y Colombia.}

DANIEL ORTEGA

Can Nicaragua survive the crisis in Venezuela?

TIM ROGERS | THE NICARAGUA DISPATCH
A 2013 file photo shows newly sworn-in Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, right, and counterparts from Cuba, Raúl Castro, second left, and Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, center, observing a photo exhibit in honor of late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez in Caracas on April 20, 2013.

AFP/Prensa Miraflores

 

 

The following article first appeared in The Nicaragua Dispatch. It is reprinted here with permission. Support the Dispatch’s efforts at brining independent journalism to Nicaragua and beyond by clicking on the original story here.

As Sandinista faithful mobilized in the streets of Managua Wednesday to pay homage to the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez on the one-year anniversary of his death, Nicaraguan and Venezuelan analysts predict the international project he started won’t outlive its founder for much longer.

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, who traveled this week to Venezuela to pay official tribute to his former benefactor, honored Chávez as a revolutionary who “fought for the people, fought for America, fought for humanity, fought for peace and fought for justice.”

Prior to leaving for the airport, Ortega said that now, more than ever, countries belonging to the alliance created by Chávez will “continue to fight for peace, for justice, for liberty and for the sovereignty of our people.”

But just a year after the loss of Chávez’s charismatic leadership, and amid the ruin of Venezuela’s economy, the Bolivarian Alliance for Our Americas (ALBA) – Chávez’s brainchild for regional integration – appears to be collapsing under the weight of its own ambition.

And some economists warn that the unraveling of ALBA could be devastating for Nicaragua’s economy.

“I think that ALBA has all the likelihood of bankrupting Nicaragua,” economist Ricardo Hausmann, director of Harvard’s Center for International Development and former minister of planning in Venezuela, told The Nicaragua Dispatch.

Recommended: He’s alive! Nicaragua’s Ortega, out of sight for days, reappears as if nothing had happened

Though Nicaraguan exports to Venezuela grew by a whopping 7,000 percent during the first six years of ALBA (from $6.2 million in 2007 to $437 million in 2012), it was growth based on a “an artificial market,” Hausmann said, and that “artificial market is in the process of collapsing.”

Venezuelan economist Ricardo Hausmann.

(Courtesy Tim Rogers)

 

 

In addition to nearly 60 percent inflation, basic shortages, an underperforming oil industry, and a runaway black market, Venezuela is accumulating billions of dollars in new debt for unpaid imports.

“Venezuela has arrears to the tune of $56 billion in unpaid bills; that includes all the imports that Venezuela has done in the past eight months, which have not been paid,” Hausmann said. In addition, Venezuela owes $3.5 billion to airline companies.

Chávez’s vision of a socialist alliance in the Americas might not disappear overnight, but ALBA’s fate is not looking good, the expert said.

“ALBA is not an economic system; it’s a preferential agreement for Venezuela to buy stuff from its friends. Venezuela is buying less and less; it’s collapsing,” Hausmann said. “It owes too much money to too many people, and it’s going to default on many people; so it’s not an exactly super sexy market to be tied to.”

Indeed, the decline of ALBA has come faster than many would have guessed. After six years of steady trade growth under Chávez, Nicaragua’s exports to Venezuela dropped by $31.7 million last year, according to Nicaraguan government figures.

Nicaragua’s oil imports from Venezuela continued to increase, but Nicaragua is a paying customer. Venezuela, on the other hand, increasingly is not.

“The Venezuelan market is a temporary thing; it is already shrinking and it won’t be there [forever], so smart Nicaraguans are not going to want to bet on that horse,” Hausmann said, adding that Nicaraguan exporters who currently are owed money from Venezuela will probably not get paid.

On the other hand, Hausmann noted, Nicaragua was smart to not abandon its free trade agreements with the U.S. and other countries. The United States remains Nicaragua’s main trading partner, purchasing $592 million in Nicaraguan exports last year — nearly $200 million more than Venezuela purchased.

“Nicaragua has all the disciplines of a free trade agreement, so from a business point of view it’s a much more open economy. There is a part of Nicaragua that has a set of economic rules that is infinitely healthier than those of Venezuela,” Hausmann said.

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega speaks at the Revolution Square in Managua, on March 5, 2013, during a ceremony to honor Hugo Chávez.

Héctor Retamal/AFP

 

 

The challenge for Nicaragua will be to make sure its exports meet the stricter standards of quality required by other countries, so they can find new markets when Venezuela ceases to be a viable option. Even if the South American oil giant can pull it together economically, any political change of the guard in Venezuela would most likely end Nicaragua’s sweetheart trade deals.

“The likelihood that the politically allocated market shares that Nicaragua has in that market are going to survive [a political change] is very unlikely,” Hausmann said.

Nicaraguan economist Francisco Aguirre is also skeptical about the future of ALBA. He says the unsustainable nature of the project was baked in from the beginning.

“With or without Chávez, ALBA — as originally conceived — was not sustainable,” Aguirre said. “Although Venezuela is potentially a very wealthy nation with the world’s largest petroleum reserves, Chávez also espoused what he called XXI Century Socialism, which was one part populism, a second part economic mismanagement, and a third part corruption.”

Ortega, however, is more savvy than Chávez was, Aguirre said. Wisely, the Nicaraguan president never jumped into XXI Century Socialism with both feet.

“Daniel Ortega milked the Venezuelan cash cow while he could, but he’s smart and experienced, so he’s aware that Venezuela’s ‘aid’ to Nicaragua is diminishing; hence his rush to firm up special relations with other nontraditional donors such as Russia,” Aguirre said.

Ortega’s challenge moving forward, the economist noted, will be finding a way to manage Nicaraguans’ expectations and keep his grip on power amid a deceleration of economic growth due to lower commodity prices and the diminishing role of Venezuelan largess.

A $40 billion Chinese canal, perhaps?

Colombian presidential election: Top candidates will face runoff

By Catherine E. Shoichet and Rafael Romo, CNN
May 26, 2014 — Updated 0312 GMT (1112 HKT)
In the preliminary tally, incumbent President Juan Manuel Santos (left) had secured 25.6% of votes, coming in behind Oscar Ivan Zuluaga (right) with 29.3% of votes.
In the preliminary tally, incumbent President Juan Manuel Santos (left) had secured 25.6% of votes, coming in behind Oscar Ivan Zuluaga (right) with 29.3% of votes.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • NEW: Santos: Voters will choose «between the end of the war and a war without end»
  • NEW: Zuluaga: «My pledge is to work for a serious, responsible and lasting peace»
  • Colombia’s presidential vote will need a second round to pick a winner
  • Key question voters are weighing: How should government handle the FARC?

(CNN) — Colombians cast ballots in a hotly contested presidential vote on Sunday, but none of the five candidates running received enough support to win the election.

In the preliminary tally, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga was in the lead with 29.3% of votes, officials said, while incumbent President Juan Manuel Santos had secured 25.6% of votes.

To win a presidential election, Colombian law requires a candidate to obtain more than 50% of votes. That means Zuluaga and Santos will face off in a runoff election on June 15.

A key question voters are weighing: Should Colombia’s government keep negotiating with leftist guerrillas or force them to surrender?

Santos was first elected in 2010 on a platform of continuing an offensive against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, leftist guerrillas that have been at war with the government for decades.

But since late 2012, peace talks with the group have become a hallmark of his presidency.

On Sunday, Santos said that in the second round, voters will choose «between the end of the war and a war without end.»

«We are going to choose between those who respect the opposition and the free press, and those who prefer intolerance,» he said.

Zuluaga has called for an end to the peace talks and is against giving any political space to the rebels.

On Sunday, he stressed that he also wanted peace for Colombia.

«Peace, yes, but peace that benefits the people,» he said. «My pledge is to work for a serious, responsible and lasting peace.»

«The difference regarding the candidates’ position in the economy and other issues is minimal, but when it comes to how to handle the guerrilla, it’s abysmal,» pollster Javier Restrepo told CNN last week. «Santos is advocating for a continuation of the peace talks he started in 2012, while Zuluaga’s position is that there should not be a dialogue with an illegal guerrilla until its fighters surrender to government forces and lay down their weapons.»

Election observers from the Organization of American States said there was a high level of abstention in Sunday’s vote, with around 60% of eligible voters deciding to stay home rather than cast ballots,CNN en Español reported.

As candidates debated the issues, a scandal involving a hacker and a video sent shockwaves through the final days of campaigning last week.

The video published by the weekly news magazine «Semana» in Bogotá allegedly shows Zuluaga getting secret military information from a man who was arrested earlier this month and accused of illegal hacking activities.

Zuluaga told reporters the five-minute video was «a vulgar montage» put together to smear his campaign.

CNN’s Mariano Castillo and CNN en Español contributed to this report.

Opositores venezolanos exigen liberación de alcaldes presos

</p><br /><br /> <p>La alcaldesa electa Patricia de Ceballos se dirige a sus seguidores después de haber ganado las elecciones el domingo en San Cristóbal, Venezuela. Su esposo, el alcalde Daniel Ceballos, fue arrestado y acusado por el gobierno de Nicolás Maduro de incitar a las protestas. </p><br /><br /> <p>

El amplío triunfo electoral de las cónyuges de dos alcaldes venezolanos destituidos y presos, con un apoyo del 73 % en un caso y de un 87 % en otro, debería obligar a la Justicia a anular sus fallos y liberarlos, opinaron dirigentes opositores al Gobierno del presidente Nicolás Maduro. – 4:04 PM ET

  • Venezuela ‘está lista’ para entregar presidencia de Mercosur a Argentina
  • Gobierno de Venezuela no tiene información oficial que dar sobre etarra fugitivo
  • Esposas de alcaldes presos dan paliza electoral al chavismo
    Read more here: http://www.elnuevoherald.com/#storylink=cpy

  • EL INFORME OPPENHEIMER

    OPPENHEIMER: El nuevo diario prohibido en Cuba

    No se pierdan el programa “Oppenheimer Presenta”, los domingos a las 9 p.m. en CNN en Español.

    ANDRÉS OPPENHEIMER AOPPENHEIMER@ELNUEVOHERALD.COM

    El primer periódico independiente de interés general de Cuba en más de cinco décadas —un diario digital llamado 14ymedio— fue rápidamente bloqueado por el gobierno apenas salió en internet la semana pasada, pero la gran pregunta es hasta qué punto podrá el régimen militar cubano evitar que sea leído por los cubanos de la isla.

    Yoani Sánchez, la prominente bloguera cubana que lanzó el nuevo diario digital junto con su esposo Reinaldo Escobar y un staff de alrededor de una docena de periodistas, confía en que los cubanos podrán sortear la censura gubernamental por medio de una serie de trucos tecnológicos.

    En este momento, se puede acceder a 14ymedio en el extranjero, pero la página está bloqueada en Cuba. Poco después de su aparición, el 21 de mayo, su sitio web fue hackeado y redirigido a una página progubernamental llamada Yoani$landia, donde se acusa a Sánchez de haber lanzado el periódico para hacerse rica.

    Pero, en el pasado, los ataques del gobierno no han logrado evitar que Sánchez se haya convertido en una de las periodistas más admiradas del mundo.

    Sánchez tiene 609,000 seguidores en Twitter, comparado con los 130,000 seguidores del gobernante cubano, el general Raúl Castro, y con los 63,000 seguidores de la agencia oficial de noticias de Cuba, Prensa Latina. Sánchez ha sido galardonada con los premios más importantes de periodismo del mundo, y la revista Time la eligió como una de las 100 personas más influyentes del planeta.

    En un artículo titulado “ Nuestro primer día”, 14ymedio reportó que minutos después de su nacimiento, el sitio web fue bloqueado en la isla. Pero 12 horas más tarde, el equipo de 14ymedio estaba celebrando el haber logrado acceder al periódico digital a través de un proxy, o sea de otro servidor que les permitió ocultar la identidad de su computadora.

    “La censura no será el obstáculo más difícil que nos tocará sortear”, decía el artículo de 14ymedio. “Bloquear 14ymedio puede convertirse en una estrategia fallida si el objetivo es silenciarnos. Nada es más atractivo que lo prohibido”.

    Además de los servidores “proxy”, 14ymedio será distribuido dentro de Cuba por medio de los “paquetes” o “combos” de tarjetas de memoria que están proliferando por doquier en la isla. Los cubanos compran tarjetas de memoria, también conocidos como flash drives o pen drives, o los consiguen gracias a alrededor de 500,000 cubano-americanos —mayormente de Miami— que visitan la isla cada año.

    Con sus tarjetas de memoria, los cubanos pueden evitar tener que ver los soporíferos canales de televisión y periódicos del gobierno —que tiene el monopolio de los medios de difusión del país— y pueden comprar “paquetes” semanales de películas, programas de televisión y periódicos extranjeros. Llevan su pen drive a su proveedor — que opera en el mercado negro— y consiguen un nuevo “paquete” de contenidos cada semana.

    “A la larga el gobierno no podrá evitar que los cubanos lean 14ymedio”, me dijo Raúl Moas, director ejecutivo de Raíces de Esperanza, un grupo con sede en Miami que envía celulares, flash drives y otros aparatos electrónicos a la isla. “Los cubanos están encontrando medios innovadores para acceder a la información y compartirla off-line”.

    Los escépticos dicen que el diario de Sánchez será —al igual que su blog GenerationY— mucho más popular en el extranjero que en Cuba, por la sencilla razón de que la mayoría de los cubanos no la conocen debido a la rígida censura de la isla y el muy restringido acceso a internet.

    Cuba, junto con Haití, Honduras y El Salvador, es uno de los países latinoamericanos con menos acceso a internet, según las cifras del Banco Mundial. Solo 25 de cada 100,000 cubanos tienen acceso a la web, casi siempre a muy baja velocidad y con un costo que está entre los más altos del mundo.

    Los “paquetes” del mercado negro no lograrán derrocar a la dictadura de la isla, como tampoco lo lograron los casetes y videocasetes del mercado negro en décadas pasadas, dicen los escépticos.

    Mi opinión: No tengo más que admiración por Sánchez, Escobar y su equipo, que están abriendo nuevos espacios de libertad de expresión en Cuba. Son verdaderos héroes de nuestra época, y —por lo que he leído hasta ahora en 14ymedio— están produciendo un periódico sorprendentemente medido, fresco e interesante.

    El régimen cubano se perjudicó a sí mismo al bloquear el nuevo diario digital en momentos en que intenta convencer al mundo de que supuestamente está haciendo grandes reformas en Cuba.

    El gobierno está luchando una batalla cuesta arriba, porque las tarjetas de memoria son mucho más baratas, pequeñas y capaces de guardar muchas más horas de videos, música y noticias que los casetes o videocasetes de décadas atrás. Creo que, cada vez más, la tecnología le ganará a la censura.

    Read more here: http://www.elnuevoherald.com/2014/05/24/1755812/oppenheimer-el-nuevo-diario-prohibido.html#storylink=cpy
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Para trabajar por la Estadidad: https://estado51prusa.com Seminarios-pnp.com https://twitter.com/EstadoPRUSA https://www.facebook.com/EstadoPRUSA/
Para trabajar por la Estadidad: https://estado51prusa.com Seminarios-pnp.com https://twitter.com/EstadoPRUSA https://www.facebook.com/EstadoPRUSA/